Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-25 33.664602 36.296007 39.155833 42.517175 46.389347 50.746994 56.075431
2025-06-01 29.408719 32.831524 36.784071 41.760517 47.971853 55.633634 66.082985
2025-06-08 26.606062 30.323011 34.775880 40.631555 48.340409 58.484435 73.511992
2025-06-15 25.537781 29.669571 34.793973 41.824584 51.593915 65.364830 87.775180
2025-06-22 24.161065 28.456934 33.919924 41.654890 52.858844 69.550658 98.993715
2025-06-29 22.815439 27.153537 32.777476 40.939728 53.165566 72.243123 108.379328
2025-07-06 21.500147 25.788300 31.428718 39.771404 52.599488 73.378111 115.179058
2025-07-13 21.151117 25.668666 31.742972 40.993970 55.820933 81.351101 138.373350
2025-07-20 20.702771 25.374947 31.776326 41.777095 58.412727 88.741405 164.008445
2025-07-27 20.242098 25.028945 31.698294 42.361669 60.724418 96.107853 194.156694
2025-08-03 19.608532 24.402194 31.164279 42.165240 61.618774 100.788129 220.040929
2025-08-10 18.896025 23.627325 30.362929 41.464143 61.495481 103.238955 240.680334
2025-08-17 18.170856 22.823100 29.504291 40.654338 61.174113 105.429949 263.732487
2025-08-24 17.518741 22.099066 28.732462 39.937774 60.962650 107.904472 291.396114
2025-08-31 16.835129 21.300729 27.806152 38.889740 59.975975 108.258081 310.362152
2025-09-07 16.710574 21.312749 28.123261 39.997837 63.464741 121.195870 420.903635
2025-09-14 16.307109 20.892878 27.740351 39.840316 64.297255 127.186165 507.074577
2025-09-21 15.819405 20.328467 27.101300 39.176106 63.954269 129.643588 574.816401
2025-09-28 15.269808 19.653286 26.258234 38.089808 62.567842 128.556884 606.934334
2025-10-05 15.218050 19.726108 26.615672 39.226503 66.319161 145.437077 981.402080
2025-10-12 15.082797 19.664729 26.749435 39.953758 69.252923 161.227489 1700.488947
2025-10-19 14.917366 19.549418 26.786483 40.496191 71.836024 177.350847 3608.176260
2025-10-26 14.626541 19.228839 26.465563 40.313964 72.571852 186.297957 7728.789487